> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.warden.finance/docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.warden.finance/docs/moonwell-risk-methodology/risk-vectors/volatility-risk.md).

# Volatility Risk

## **Definition**

Volatility can be described as a measure of the amplitude of price changes for an asset over time.

## **Risks**

Overcollateralized lending protocols like Moonwell are subject to volatility risks. As collateral and debt asset prices change, the collateralization of accounts changes.&#x20;

In order to maintain solvency, the protocol must ensure that debts are always overcollateralized by assets of a higher value. If debts were not overcollateralized, borrowers would be economically incentivized to default on their debt. Defaulting would lead to the creation of bad debts in the system.&#x20;

In order to mitigate asset volatility risk, the protocol enforces liquidations to ensure that debts are always overcollateralized.

## **Indicators**

For our methodology we’ll use the following data points to assess an asset’s volatility profile:

* Historical volatility - Past volatility can be a good indicator of future volatility
* Historical drawdowns - Past worst asset decrease over a given period of time
* Asset concentration - Wallets who hold a sizable portion of the total supply of the asset also have a sizable capacity to influence its price.
* Asset liquidity - Deeper liquidity can decrease an asset's volatility.
* Peg and collateralization - If an asset is pegged (ex: USDC) it will change its volatility profile.

<figure><img src="/files/lyczazPu7GF4nP5kiYhQ" alt=""><figcaption><p>Asset price feeds and volatility metrics, as provided on the <a href="https://www.warden.finance/tokens/WETH.wh?chain=1284">Warden Finance dashboard for WETH.wh </a></p></figcaption></figure>
